My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005. - Alan Ruskin Quotes
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005. Alan Ruskin
 

More - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.

Alan Ruskin

 Earnings
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate, ... So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate, ... So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.

Alan Ruskin

 Earnings
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,' - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'

Alan Ruskin

 
[While calling the ISM report] categorically bond-negative, ... Ten-year notes do not look like they are about to sail through 4.593 percent high yield from (Monday), in part because of caution before the FOMC. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

[While calling the ISM report] categorically bond-negative, ... Ten-year notes do not look like they are about to sail through 4.593 percent high yield from (Monday), in part because of caution before the FOMC.

Alan Ruskin

 
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

Alan Ruskin

 Inflation
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.

Alan Ruskin

 
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.

Alan Ruskin

 
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.

Alan Ruskin

 Flexibility
The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.

Alan Ruskin

 
The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained. - Alan Ruskin Quotes

The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.

Alan Ruskin

 Inflation
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