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Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong.

I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today.

Retailers are concerned, but they're not panicky, - Mark Vitner Quotes

Retailers are concerned, but they're not panicky,

It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat. - Mark Vitner Quotes

It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.

That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February, - Mark Vitner Quotes

That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,

What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South. - Mark Vitner Quotes

What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South.

Home

Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed, - Mark Vitner Quotes

Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,

It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year, ... Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well. - Mark Vitner Quotes

It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year, ... Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well.

I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting. It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy. - Mark Vitner Quotes

The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy.

I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts. - Mark Vitner Quotes

We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.

The number one problem continues to be a lack of job and income growth. - Mark Vitner Quotes

The number one problem continues to be a lack of job and income growth.

The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources. - Mark Vitner Quotes

The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.

I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.

There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent, - Mark Vitner Quotes

There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,

We're not likely to see reports as good as this the second half of the year. We know gasoline prices picked back up in July. But inflation should stay in basically in check. - Mark Vitner Quotes

We're not likely to see reports as good as this the second half of the year. We know gasoline prices picked back up in July. But inflation should stay in basically in check.

It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported. - Mark Vitner Quotes

It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation. - Mark Vitner Quotes

There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation.

We're likely to see large upward revision to earlier data, so it'll be harder for January to show a big gain. - Mark Vitner Quotes

We're likely to see large upward revision to earlier data, so it'll be harder for January to show a big gain.

We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick. - Mark Vitner Quotes

We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.

The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending, - Mark Vitner Quotes

The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,

The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending, - Mark Vitner Quotes

The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,

It's truly amazing unemployment has gotten this low in Florida when the population is growing as fast as it is. - Mark Vitner Quotes

It's truly amazing unemployment has gotten this low in Florida when the population is growing as fast as it is.

I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely.

In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. - Mark Vitner Quotes

In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines. - Mark Vitner Quotes

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines, - Mark Vitner Quotes

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines,

There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100. - Mark Vitner Quotes

There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.

They're only mediocre if you're a securities analyst, not if you're a real person, ... The successful retailers are opening stores like mad. That may steal sales from existing stores of their own as well as other retailers. But the overall pie is growing. I'm an economist; I focus on the pie, I don't care how they slice it. - Mark Vitner Quotes

They're only mediocre if you're a securities analyst, not if you're a real person, ... The successful retailers are opening stores like mad. That may steal sales from existing stores of their own as well as other retailers. But the overall pie is growing. I'm an economist; I focus on the pie, I don't care how they slice it.

The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment. - Mark Vitner Quotes

The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.

While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments. - Mark Vitner Quotes

While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.

People just keep buying homes, - Mark Vitner Quotes

People just keep buying homes,

The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth. - Mark Vitner Quotes

The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.

It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying, - Mark Vitner Quotes

It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying,

So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers. - Mark Vitner Quotes

So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.

Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course, - Mark Vitner Quotes

Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,

it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices. - Mark Vitner Quotes

it's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.

A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply. - Mark Vitner Quotes

A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.

It's pretty early to have a good idea of what damage there is in the region. It is the damage to the energy infrastructure that is important to the national economy. - Mark Vitner Quotes

It's pretty early to have a good idea of what damage there is in the region. It is the damage to the energy infrastructure that is important to the national economy.

High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels. - Mark Vitner Quotes

High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.

This is such a different type of disaster than we're accustomed to dealing with. - Mark Vitner Quotes

This is such a different type of disaster than we're accustomed to dealing with.

This is another affirmation that we've gotten over the shock of the hurricanes and the economy is back on track to where it was before. - Mark Vitner Quotes

This is another affirmation that we've gotten over the shock of the hurricanes and the economy is back on track to where it was before.

We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well. - Mark Vitner Quotes

We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.

Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation.

Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year. - Mark Vitner Quotes

Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.

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